Papers by Oscar Levy
LLM as a Risk Manager: LLM Semantic Filtering for Lead–Lag Trading in Prediction Markets (2026.acl-industry)
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Sumin Kim, Minjae Kim, Jihoon Kwon, Yoon Kim, Oscar Levy, Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Yongjae Lee, Chanyeol Choi
| Challenge: | Prediction markets provide a unique setting where event-level time series are directly tied to natural-language descriptions, yet discovering robust lead–lag relationships remains challenging due to spurious statistical correlations. |
| Approach: | They propose a statistical stage that uses Granger causality to identify candidate leader–follower pairs from market-implied probability time series and an LLM-based semantic stage that re-ranks these candidates by assessing whether the proposed direction admits a plausible economic transmission mechanism. |
| Outcome: | The proposed approach consistently outperforms the statistical baseline on Kalshi Economics markets. |