Challenge: a large amount of insight into human language processing can be gleaned by studying word-by-word processing difficulty.
Approach: They extend the study by examining eyetracking corpora of seven languages . they find evidence for superlinearity in some languages, but highly sensitive to language models .
Outcome: The study extends existing studies on english to Danish, Dutch, English, German, Japanese, Mandarin, and Russian.

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The Effects of Surprisal across Languages: Results from Native and Non-native Reading (2022.findings-aacl)

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Challenge: Context-dependent predictive processes have been proposed as a core component of the human cognitive system.
Approach: They extract surprisal estimates from mBERT and assess their predictive power on the MECO corpus, a cross-linguistic dataset of eye movement behavior in reading.
Outcome: The proposed model is based on a cross-linguistic dataset of eye movement behavior in reading.
Why Does Surprisal From Larger Transformer-Based Language Models Provide a Poorer Fit to Human Reading Times? (2023.tacl-1)

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Challenge: Existing studies have shown that larger pre-trained language models with more parameters and lower perplexity are less predictive of human reading times.
Approach: They propose to use a transformer-based model with more parameters and lower perplexity to investigate why these models are less predictive of human reading times.
Outcome: The results show that the larger models with more parameters and lower perplexity are less predictive of human reading times and eye-gaze durations collected during naturalistic reading.
On the Role of Context in Reading Time Prediction (2024.emnlp-main)

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Challenge: a new perspective on how readers integrate context during reading time prediction is presented . a recent study shows that the proportion of variance in reading times explained by context is smaller when context is represented by the orthogonalized predictor.
Approach: They propose a technique where they project surprisal onto the orthogonal complement of frequency.
Outcome: The proposed method shows that the proportion of variance in reading times explained by context is smaller when context is represented by the orthogonalized predictor.
Temperature-scaling surprisal estimates improve fit to human reading times – but does it do so for the “right reasons”? (2024.acl-long)

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Challenge: a wide body of evidence shows that human language processing difficulty is predicted by the information-theoretic measure surprisal, a word’s negative log probability in context.
Approach: They propose to use large language models to predict the surprisal of a word's negative log probability in context to test their predictive power.
Outcome: The proposed model can be significantly more accurate than humans because it has more data.
Language Model Quality Correlates with Psychometric Predictive Power in Multiple Languages (2023.emnlp-main)

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Challenge: Existing studies have found that higher quality language models provide more powerful predictors of human reading behavior, but empirical support for the QP hypothesis is mixed.
Approach: They propose to test the quality–power hypothesis by using surprisal language models to test their ability to predict eye tracking data.
Outcome: The proposed model is based on a set of language models with a 'quality-power' hypothesis.
An Existence Proof for Neural Language Models That Can Explain Garden-Path Effects via Surprisal (2026.acl-long)

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Challenge: Surprisal theory claims that difficulty of sentences increases linearly with surprise . a neural LM that can explain garden-path effects cannot be built, says a new study .
Approach: They propose to fine-tune neural LMs to better align surprisal-based reading-time estimates with actual reading times.
Outcome: a new study shows that fine-tuned neural LMs do not overfit on held-out items . the results show that they improve predictive power for human reading times .
The Inverse Scaling Effect of Pre-Trained Language Model Surprisal Is Not Due to Data Leakage (2025.findings-acl)

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Challenge: Language models (LMs) have been shown to flexibly capture many linguistic regularities from raw text, but the source stimuli of reading time datasets are often naturalistic text that are available online.
Approach: They propose to replicate the negative relationship between language model size and the fit of surprisal to reading times using models trained on ‘leakage-free’ data that overlaps only minimally with the reading time corpora.
Outcome: The proposed models show that language models trained on 'leakage-free' data are not driven by data leakage.
Probing for Reading Times (2026.acl-long)

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Challenge: a large body of work on probing has demonstrated that language model representations encode a wealth of linguistic information, but it remains unclear whether they also capture cognitive signals about human processing.
Approach: They use regularized linear regression to compare language model representations against scalar predictors.
Outcome: The representations from early layers outperform surprisal in predicting early-pass measures such as first fixation and gaze duration.
Transformer-Based Language Model Surprisal Predicts Human Reading Times Best with About Two Billion Training Tokens (2023.findings-emnlp)

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Challenge: Recent studies have drawn conflicting conclusions about the relationship between the quality of a language model and the ability of its surprisal estimates to predict human reading times.
Approach: They propose to evaluate surprisal estimates from Transformer-based language model variants that vary systematically in the amount of training data and model capacity on their ability to predict human reading times.
Outcome: The proposed model variants with contemporary model capacities provide the best fit after seeing about two billion training tokens, while smaller models show a ‘tipping point’ at convergence after the decrease in language model perplexity .
Using surprisal and fMRI to map the neural bases of broad and local contextual prediction during natural language comprehension (2021.findings-acl)

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Challenge: a prior work using surprisal only considered within-sentence context, using n-grams, neural language models, or syntactic structure as conditioning context.
Approach: They extend the surprisal approach to use broader topical context . they identify distinct patterns of neural activation for lexical surprised and topical surpresed .
Outcome: The proposed method captures effects of local and topical contexts on processing . it shows that local and broad contextual cues recruit different brain regions .

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